Il potenziale di crescita sprecato della Cina

SHANGHAI – Il rallentamento economico della Cina, dal quasi 10% di produttività annua nel 2007 all’8% di oggi, ha alimentato una diffusa speculazione sul potenziale di crescita dell’economia. Se però è impossibile predire la futura traiettoria di crescita della Cina, comprendere i trend economici di base rappresenta il miglior modo per trarre una stima significativa.

Mentre la domanda a breve termine stabilisce in gran parte un tasso di crescita reale dell’economia, il suo potenziale tasso di crescita è determinato dal fronte dell’offerta. Alcuni economisti – citando indicatori come i tassi di investimenti, il valore aggiunto per l’industria e l’occupazione – fanno un confronto tra la Cina e il Giappone di inizio anni 70. Dopo oltre due decenni di rapida crescita, l’economia del Giappone ha registrato una considerevole frenata nel 1971, portando a quattro decenni di tassi di crescita annui con una media inferiore al 4%.

Questa correlazione è rinforzata dall’ipotesi di convergenza – la teoria di benchmarking per stimare il potenziale tasso di crescita dell’economia – secondo cui il tasso di crescita reale di un’economia in via di sviluppo in rapida crescita rallenta quando raggiunge una certa percentuale di stock di capitale e reddito pro capite di un’economia avanzata. Secondo gli economisti Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park e Kwanho Shin, questa percentuale si aggira attorno al 60% del reddito pro capite dell’America (in base ai prezzi internazionali del 2005).

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/WYm5DJu/it;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now