理解中国增长模式

上海—尽管中国经济在过去三十年来扩张迅猛,但如今人们广泛认为其增长模式已经达到了极限。中国最高领导层也承认需要做出改变——这一信念在十八大三中全会后所发布的意义深远的改革计划中尽显无疑。

对于新增长模式的具体内容,人们还有一些分歧,但各种方案之间并无剧烈差异,因为当前模式建立在不可持续的基础之上已成为压倒性共识。在需求端,许多经济学家认为应该从投资拉动转变为消费驱动型增长。供给端的建议更是毫无异议——从粗放型增长转变为集约型增长,即从基于资本积累的模式转变效率推动模式。效率的衡量标准则是全要素生产率(TFP)。

这些建议大概是受到了保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)1994年对东亚经济体(特别是新加坡)的苏联式粗放型增长的批评的影响。当时,杰弗里·萨克斯(Jeffery Sachs)提出过异议,他认为东亚模式的效率远胜于苏联模式的、因为在前者,市场分配投资要比计划者分配投资有效率的多;尽管如此,萨克斯仍遭到了诟病。

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