tyson53_Thomas Trutschel_getty_euro coin

Economics

Die Belebung der europäischen Wirtschaft

Jun 26, 2016 Laura Tyson and Eric Labaye

PARIS – Vor nicht allzu langer Zeit wäre die Vorstellung, die Europäische Zentralbank würde Regierungen oder Bürgern direkt Geld überweisen – so genanntes Helikoptergeld – noch haarsträubend erschienen. Mittlerweile allerdings wird die Idee einer monetären Finanzierung konjunkturbelebender Maßnahmen in der einen oder anderen Form von einer überraschenden Zahl an Mainstream-Ökonomen und zentristischen Politikern unterstützt.

Dies stellt einen dringend notwendigen Wandel in der Debatte dar – der endlich die Belebung der Nachfrageseite der europäischen Wirtschaft deutlicher in den Mittelpunkt rückt. Nach Jahren des stagnierenden Wachstums und lähmender Arbeitslosigkeit sollten alle auch noch so unkonventionellen Optionen auf den Tisch gelegt werden.

Die aufgrund des Referendums in Großbritannien getroffene Entscheidung, die Europäische Union zu verlassen, ist nur ein weiteres Argument für verstärkte Konjunkturbelebung und unkonventionelle Maßnahmen in Europa. Will man eine große Mehrheit der EU-Bürger für fortgesetzte politische Integration gewinnen, ist robustes Wirtschaftswachstum von entscheidender Bedeutung.

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Laura Tyson

Writing for PS since 2012
117 Commentaries

Laura Tyson, a former chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton administration, is a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, and a member of the Board of Advisers at Angeleno Group.

Eric Labaye

Writing for PS since 2013
3 Commentaries

Eric Labaye is Chairman of the McKinsey Global Institute.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 7 Comments on this article

Ed Rector Jul 6, 2016

Ms Tyson is out of her depth here. It is only some EU countries that cannot escape high unemployment primarily Greece, France, Italy and Spain. Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, & Denmark are doing just fine.

The answer is for Germany to invest some of its excess trade surpluses in the trade deficit countries. New BMW or VW assembly plants near Athens and Lisbon would do wonders for all three countries.
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Per Kurowski Jul 3, 2016

Begin by getting rid of current blind and dumb bank regulators

http://teawithft.blogspot.se/2016/07/to-bring-back-broad-based-and-growing.html
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jack lasersohn Jun 28, 2016

"...businesses invest when they are confident about future demand and output growth".

Yes. But does a helicopter drop produce such confidence?
The problem with this is that it assumes investors are stupid automata. A helicopter drop and most other forms of direct government stimulus are always temporary. The Keynesian program of putting people to work burying and then digging up bottles of money, would certainly produce a temporary increased demand for shovels, but an intelligent shovel maker will respond with a temporary ramping up of production, not the installation of major new permanent capacity.
This is true with respect to all the demand created in such a manner. Investors respond to increases in sustainable demand, like people needing food or clothing etc. , not temporary make-work.

Moreover, while fiscal deficit stimulus is constrained by the anticipation of future tax increases, money powered stimulus is constrained by the anticipation of future inflation. In both cases a rational investor will see a reduced present value due either to less future after tax income or a higher discount rate. The answer that a responsible monetary authority who printed the helicopter money in the first place will prevent inflation by rapid tightening is patently not credible to a rational investor.
The example of WWII as evidence of the benefit of stimulus is also not credible. What ended the depression was 17 years of economic deprivation including 4 years of war which destroyed vast assets and imposed draconian rationing. As Keynes explained, what ends depressions is the need to replace stuff that wears out or is destroyed, and satisfying real pent up demand.

This is not to say we should not provide support for people impacted by the depression, but that is based on humanitarian considerations. We should not destroy money by letting banks go bankrupt. We should even take advantage of low interest rates to fund useful infrastructure. But it is a fantasy to think that temporary stimulus , either fiscal or money based, has the 'pump priming' impact assumed by the authors.
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Vladimir Rogozhin Jun 28, 2016

I fully agree with this philosophical conclusion: "Unconventional times require consideration of bold unconventional policy approaches." Deep philosophy must come to schools, universities, business and politics. The whole history of the peoples of Greater Europe requires the deep cooperation.
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Tomas Kurian Jun 28, 2016

We said it too, long time ago.

Debt relief , Limits of supply side stimulus
http://www.genomofcapitalism.com/index.php/4-4-debt-relief-2
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Paul Daley Jun 28, 2016

Good article. The advantages of using central bank powers to supplement income flows rather than support asset prices are just too numerous to ignore.
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Paul Friesen Jun 27, 2016

I really hope that it does not turn out that war is the only thing that can get governments to spend enough to get out of a liquidity trap. That is how we got out of the great depression. There are just two examples I know of where governments not preparing for war actually did it. Sweden ran enough of a deficit setting up its welfare state to get out of the Great Depression. And China ended the crisis of 2008 for itself with its massive stimulus plan. But other than that, the outlook is depressing.
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Die Belebung der europäischen Wirtschaft

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