Lecciones latinoamericanas de diplomacia nuclear

BUENOS AIRES – En cierto modo, las últimas negociaciones sobre el programa nuclear de Irán entre este país y los cinco miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas más Alemania (el P5+1), que continuarán el 7 de noviembre en Ginebra, parecen más promisorias que las rondas anteriores. Al menos, el presidente iraní Hasán Ruhaní se comprometió a adoptar un enfoque más conciliador que su predecesor.

Pero los negociadores se enfrentan a circunstancias difíciles, entre ellas la incertidumbre económica de Occidente y una intensa agitación política en Medio Oriente y el norte de África (por no hablar de una larga historia de desconfianza mutua y atascos en las negociaciones). Para maximizar la probabilidad de obtener resultados positivos, los negociadores deberían tomar en cuenta ciertas “prácticas recomendadas” que surgen de negociaciones nucleares exitosas del pasado, entre ellas el acuerdo de cooperación nuclear entre Brasil y Argentina, un ejemplo de pensamiento creativo en temas de no proliferación.

Durante muchos años, Brasil y Argentina estuvieron trabados en un dilema de seguridad. Los dos países anhelaban que se los reconociera como potencias nucleares; de hecho, sus gobiernos contaban con círculos internos que apoyaban activamente la proliferación. Ambas partes llegaron a estar cerca de obtener armas nucleares, y eso despertó una entendible preocupación en el resto del mundo. Desde el punto de vista militar, la situación amenazaba escalar en forma catastrófica.

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