Una estrategia occidental para una Rusia decadente

CAMBRIDGE – El Grupo de Estrategia Aspen, un comité apartidario de expertos en política exterior, del que Brent Scowcroft (ex asesor de seguridad nacional de Estados Unidos) y yo somos copresidentes, se enfrentó hace poco a la cuestión de cómo responder a las acciones de Rusia en Ucrania. Y ahora la OTAN se enfrenta a la misma pregunta.

Occidente debe resistir el desafío planteado por el presidente ruso Vladímir Putin a la norma adoptada desde 1945 de no reclamar territorios por la fuerza, pero sin aislar por completo a Rusia, un país con el que Occidente tiene intereses en común en cuestiones como la seguridad nuclear, la no proliferación, el antiterrorismo, el Ártico y temas regionales como Irán y Afganistán. Además, en cualquier escalada del conflicto en Ucrania, Putin tendría la ventaja geográfica.

Es natural enojarse por los engaños de Putin, pero el enojo no es una estrategia. Occidente necesita imponer sanciones financieras y en materia energética para disuadir a Rusia en Ucrania, pero sin perder de vista la necesidad de colaborar con Rusia en otros asuntos. Reconciliar estos objetivos no es fácil, y a ninguna de las partes le conviene una nueva Guerra Fría. Por eso no es sorprendente que al momento de recomendar políticas concretas, el grupo de Aspen se haya dividido entre los partidarios de “forzar” y los de “negociar”.

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