Eine Strategie des Westens für ein Russland im Niedergang

CAMBRIDGE – Die Aspen Strategy Group, eine überparteiliche Gruppe außenpolitischer Experten unter dem gemeinsamen Vorsitz vom ehemaligen Nationalen Sicherheitsberater der USA Brent Scowcroft und mir, hat unlängst mit der Frage gerungen, wie auf Russlands Vorgehen in der Ukraine reagiert werden soll. Die NATO ringt derzeit mit derselben Frage.

Zwar muss der Westen dem russischen Präsidenten Wladimir Putin entgegentreten, der mit der nach 1945 geltenden Norm bricht, keine gewaltsamen Territorialansprüche zu erheben, doch er darf Russland nicht völlig isolieren; einem Land, mit dem der Westen sich überschneidende Interessen in Bezug auf nukleare Sicherheit, Nichtverbreitung, Terrorismusbekämpfung, die Arktis und regionale Angelegenheiten wie Iran und Afghanistan teilt. Hinzukommt, dass Putin schlicht aufgrund der Geographie bei einer Verschärfung des Konflikts in der Ukraine im Vorteil ist.

Es ist naheliegend, mit Wut auf Putins Täuschungen zu reagieren, aber Wut ist keine Strategie. Der Westen muss finanzielle Sanktionen und Sanktionen gegen den Energiesektor verhängen, um Russland in der Ukraine zu stoppen, muss aber gleichzeitig die Notwendigkeit im Auge behalten, in anderen Fragen mit Russland zusammenzuarbeiten. Es ist nicht leicht, diese beiden Ziele miteinander zu vereinbaren und keine der beiden Seiten würde von einem neuen Kalten Krieg profitieren. Daher überrascht es nicht, dass sich die Aspen Group als es um konkrete Handlungsempfehlungen ging in „squeezers“ und „dealers“ gespalten hat, also in jene, die Druck auf Russland ausüben wollen und jene, die die Notwendigkeit des Verhandelns sehen.

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