针对衰落的俄罗斯的西方战略

美国剑桥—由前美国国家安全顾问布伦特·斯考克罗夫特(Brent Scowcroft)和我担任联职主席的无党派外交政策专家组织阿斯彭战略集团(Aspen Strategy Group)最近为了如何应对俄罗斯在乌克兰的行为而产生了争议。现在,北约也为了这一问题起了争议。

西方必须阻止俄罗斯总统普京对不使用武力主张领土权利这一1945年后规范的挑战,但也不能完全孤立俄罗斯,西方与俄罗斯在核安全、核不扩散、反恐、北冰洋以及伊朗和阿富汗等地区问题方面有着利益重叠。此外,地理形势决定了不管乌克兰冲突发生怎样的升级,普京都将拥有优势。

对于普京的欺骗,感到愤怒是人之常情,但愤怒不是战略。西方需要实施金融和能源制裁以使俄罗斯不敢在乌克兰轻举妄动;但西方也不能无视与俄罗斯在其他问题上合作的需要。调和这些目标并不容易,而新冷战也不会令任何一方受益。因此,毫不奇怪,但涉及到具体的政策建议时,阿斯彭集团就分裂为“施压派”和“交易派”。

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