El cálculo de Putin

CAMBRIDGE – Conforme a la mayoría de las opiniones, el Presidente de Rusia, Vladimir Putin, ha sido el vencedor en la crisis de Ucrania, al menos hasta ahora. Su anexión de Crimea, que Nikita Jrushchev transfirió arbitrariamente a Ucrania en 1954, ha sido aplaudida de forma generalizada en su país y su reacción ante las respuestas de los gobiernos occidentales ha sido en gran medida la de encogerse de hombros, pero, desde una perspectiva a más largo plazo, la victoria de Putin no es tan segura precisamente.

La crisis actual de Ucrania comenzó con la decisión del Presidente Viktor Yanukóvich de rechazar un Acuerdo de Asociación de la Unión Europea y optar, en cambio, por un acuerdo con Rusia, que incluía, entre otras cosas, una financiación urgentemente necesaria. Los ucranianos de las regiones occidentales del país, las más pro UE, se sintieron indignados y se produjeron protestas populares prolongadas que acabaron derribando al gobierno corrupto, pero democráticamente elegido, de Yanukóvich.

Pero no todos los ucranianos eran contrarios a mantener vínculos más estrechos con Rusia. De hecho, la decisión de Yanukóvich gustó a muchos ciudadanos rusófonos de las regiones oriental y meridional de Ucrania y, cuando, después de meses de manifestaciones pacíficas en Kiev, estalló la violencia y murieron manifestantes, a Rusia fue adonde Yanukóvich huyó.

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