Putins Kalkül

CAMBRIDGE – Der Mehrzahl der Berichte nach zu urteilen ist der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin der Gewinner der Ukraine-Krise, zumindest bis jetzt. Seine Annektierung der Krim, die Nikita Chruschtschow 1954 freiwillig an die Ukraine übertrug, erhielt in Russland großen Beifall, und die Reaktionen westlicher Regierungen hat er größtenteils gelassen hingenommen. Doch längerfristig betrachtet ist Putins Sieg nicht ganz so gewiss.

Die aktuelle Krise in der Ukraine begann mit Präsident Wiktor Janukowitschs Entscheidung, ein Assoziierungsabkommen der Europäischen Union abzulehnen und stattdessen ein Abkommen mit Russland abzuschließen, das dringend benötigte Finanzmittel beinhaltete. Die Ukrainer in den eher EU-freundlichen westlichen Regionen des Landes waren darüber empört, und es kam zu anhaltenden Protesten, die letztendlich Janukowitschs korrupte, aber demokratisch gewählte Regierung stürzten.

Doch nicht alle Ukrainer waren gegen engere Beziehungen zu Russland. Tatsächlich freuten sich viele russischsprachige Menschen in den östlichen und südlichen Regionen der Ukraine über Janukowitschs Entscheidung. Und an Russland wendete sich Janukowitsch auch, als es nach monatelangen friedlichen Demonstrationen in Kiew zu Gewaltausbrüchen kam und Demonstranten umgebracht wurden, was ihn dazu trieb, die Ukraine zu verlassen.

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