Agenda für die Euro-Rettung

NEW YORK – Drei Jahre sind seit dem Ausbruch der Eurokrise vergangen, und nur ein unverbesserlicher Optimist würde sagen, dass das Schlimmste eindeutig überstanden ist. Einige stellen fest, dass der erneute Absturz in die Rezession der Eurozone beendet ist und kommen zu dem Schluss, dass die Sparmedizin funktioniert hat. Das dürfte ein schwacher Trost für Länder sein, in denen der Konjunkturrückgang anhält, das Pro-Kopf-BIP immer noch unter dem Niveau von 2008 liegt, die Arbeitslosenquote über 20% und die Jugendarbeitslosigkeit bei über 50%. Beim derzeitigen Tempo der „Erholung“ kann bis weit ins nächste Jahrzehnt hinein keine Rückkehr zur Normalität erwartet werden.

In einer aktuellen Studie der US-Notenbank Federal Reserve sind Wirtschaftswissenschaftler zu dem Schluss gelangt, dass Amerikas anhaltend hohe Arbeitslosigkeit auf Jahre hinaus schwere negative Auswirkungen auf das BIP haben wird. Wenn das auf die Vereinigten Staaten zutrifft, wo die Arbeitslosigkeit 40% geringer ist als in Europa, sind die Aussichten für europäisches Wachstum wahrhaftig trübe.

Was in erster Linie gebraucht wird, ist eine grundlegende Reform der Struktur der Eurozone. Inzwischen existiert ein recht klares Verständnis dessen, was erforderlich ist:

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