El gran malestar continúa

NUEVA YORK – Escribir el resumen de cada uno de los años transcurridos durante el medio decenio que comenzó a partir de la erupción de la crisis financiera mundial en 2008 ha resultado –y sigue resultando– deprimente. Sí, nos libramos de una Gran Depresión II, pero sólo para acabar en un gran malestar, con ingresos apenas en aumento para una gran proporción de los ciudadanos de las economías avanzadas. En 2014 podemos esperar más de lo mismo.

En los Estados Unidos, ha continuado la dismunición, al parecer inexorable, de la media de los ingresos; en el caso de los trabajadores masculinos, han bajado hasta niveles inferiores a los alcanzados hace más de 40 años. En 2013, ha acabado la doble recesión de Europa, pero nadie puede afirmar responsablemente que tras ella haya habido una recuperación. Más del 50 por ciento de los jóvenes de España y Grecia siguen desempleados. Según el Fondo Monetario Internacional, España seguirá padeciendo en los años futuros un desempleo superior al 25 por ciento.

El autentico peligro para Europa es el de que se instale una sensación de complacencia. Durante el transcurso de este año, hemos podido notar que en la zona del euro se aminoraba el ritmo de las reformas institucionales decisivas. Por ejemplo, la unión monetaria requiere una unión bancaria real –incluida no sólo una supervisión común, sino también el seguro común de depósitos y un mecanismo común de resolución– y unos eurobonos –o algún medio similar para la mutualización– de la deuda. La zona del euro no está más próxima a adoptar esa medida que hace un año.

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