Vyspělá malátnost

NEW YORK – Ekonomie se často označuje za „chmurnou vědu“ a v uplynulých pěti letech si ve vyspělých zemích takovou reputaci namouduši vysloužila. Nadcházející rok bohužel nepřinese výraznější úlevu.

Reálný (inflačně očištěný) HDP na hlavu ve Francii, Řecku, Itálii, Španělsku, Británii a Spojených státech je dnes nižší než před propuknutím Velké recese. Ostatně řecký HDP na hlavu se od roku 2008 smrštil bezmála o 25 %.

Existuje několik výjimek: Po více než dvou dekádách se zdá, že japonské hospodářství za vlády premiéra Šinzó Abeho mění směr; vzhledem k dědictví deflace trvající už od 90. let to však bude dlouhá cesta zpět. Německé reálné HDP na hlavu bylo v roce 2012 vyšší než roku 2007 – třebaže nárůst o 3,9 % během pěti let není nic, čím by se ekonomika mohla chlubit.

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