Las economías emergentes están a su suerte

NUEVA YORK – Hay una similitud sorprendente entre la declaración del Presidente del Banco Central Europeo, Mario Draghi, después de la reunión más reciente de su Consejo de Gobierno, y la de la Presidente de la Reserva Federal, Janet Yellen, en su primer testimonio ante el Congreso: ambos afirmaron que tomarán sus decisiones teniendo en cuenta únicamente las condiciones de sus propias economías. Esto significa que aunque las economías emergentes están sujetas a los efectos de contagio de las políticas monetarias de los países desarrollados, estas repercusiones serán ignoradas.

Esto confirma lo que las autoridades de las economías emergentes ya sabían. En el 2010, después del anuncio de la Reserva Federal de la tercera ronda de relajamiento cuantitativo, el Ministro de Hacienda de Brasil, Guido Mantega, acusó a los países desarrollados de una “guerra de divisas”. Después de todo, los países desarrollados estaban induciendo flujos de capitales masivos hacia las economías emergentes, apreciando sus monedas y afectando su competitividad internacional. La Presidente de Brasil, Dilma Rousseff, denomino posteriormente este fenómeno como un “tsunami de capitales”.

El impacto de la reversión de las políticas monetarias de los países desarrollados ha sido igualmente severo. Desde mayo pasado, cuando la Reserva Federal anunció que reduciría sus compras de activos, los capitales se han hecho menos abundantes y más caros para las economías emergentes. Este fenómeno ha sido particularmente doloroso para países que dependen del financiamiento internacional debido a sus elevados déficit en cuenta corriente. El Gobernador del Banco de Reserva de la India, Raghuram Rajan, ha señalado que las políticas de los países desarrollados son “egoístas” y que la cooperación monetaria internacional ha colapsado.

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