L'Occident surmené

BERLIN – Les conséquences chaotiques de la désintégration progressive de la PaxAmericana deviennent de plus en plus évidentes. Sept décennies durant, les États-Unis ont préservé un cadre mondial, qui en dépit des imperfections et des erreurs que peut commettre une superpuissance, a su garantir un niveau minimal de stabilité. Pour le moins, la Pax Americana était une composante essentielle de la sécurité de l'Occident. Mais les États-Unis ne sont plus en mesure ni capables d'être le gendarme du monde.

L'énorme accumulation des crises et de conflits que connaît le monde aujourd'hui, (en Ukraine, en Irak, en Syrie, à Gaza et en Libye) dépend de la nouvelle position des États-Unis. Si des événements devaient se produire dans une autre zone sismique de la politique mondiale, à savoir en Extrême-Orient, le monde devrait faire face à une catastrophe mondiale découlant de la synchronicité de nombreuses crises régionales. Évidemment, il s'agirait d'une crise que personne ne pourrait contrôler ni contenir.

Le monde bipolaire de la Guerre froide fait partie de l'histoire ancienne : George W. Bush a dilapidé le court épisode où États-Unis jouaient encore un rôle de véritable superpuissance unique. La mondialisation économique n'a pour l'instant pas donné lieu à un cadre mondial de gouvernance. Nous sommes peut-être au milieu d'un processus chaotique d'où va surgir un nouvel ordre international. Ou bien, et c'est ce qui paraît le plus probable, nous ne sommes qu'au début de ce processus.

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