La desactivación del Irán

BERLÍN – El 18 de febrero, se iniciaron en Viena unas negociaciones decisivas sobre el programa nuclear del Irán entre este país y los cinco miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas más Alemania (el P5+1). La opción substitutiva de las conversaciones es un mayor aumento de la capacidad nuclear del Irán, al que seguirían otras sanciones internacionales y, con el tiempo, otra guerra en Oriente Medio, que, como considera todo el mundo, no puede resolver el problema. Así, pues, ¿se podrá lograr un acuerdo amplio que respete el derecho del Irán a utilizar la energía nuclear para fines civiles y al mismo tiempo atenuar los temores de militarización?

El acuerdo provisional alcanzado el pasado mes de noviembre en Ginebra reflejó la aceptación de facto por parte de Occidente de que el Irán tiene derecho a llevar a cabo un enriquecimiento limitado de uranio enriquecido en el marco del Tratado sobre la no proliferación (TNP). Occidente liberó unos 7.000 millones de fondos iraníes congelados y relajó algunas de las sanciones (en particular, las relativas al petróleo crudo y a las piezas de automóviles), mientras que el Irán accedió casi a congelar su programa nuclear, con lo que se creó la base para un acuerdo duradero, pero la realización de esas posibilidades será difícil.

En primer lugar, habrá que superar una montaña de desconfianza mutua. Occidente e Israel no creen que el programa nuclear del Irán esté concebido para fines meramente civiles. De lo contrario, ¿por qué habría de invertir el Irán miles de millones de dólares en un programa hecho casi a medida para fines militares, incluidos los sistemas vectores de larga distancia?

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