Desarmar o Irão

BERLIM – No dia 18 de Fevereiro, começaram as negociações cruciais sobre o programa nuclear do Irão, em Viena, entre o Irão e os cinco membros permanentes do Conselho de Segurança das Nações Unidas, mais a Alemanha (o P5+1). A alternativa às negociações é o crescimento nuclear suplementar do Irão, seguido por sanções internacionais adicionais e, eventualmente, outra guerra no Médio Oriente, algo que ninguém acredita poder resolver o problema. Sendo assim, será que um acordo abrangente que respeite o direito do Irão à energia nuclear civil, enquanto se acalmam os receios de armamento, da comunidade internacional, pode ser alcançado?

 O acordo provisório alcançado em Novembro passado, em Genebra, reflectiu a aceitação de facto do Ocidente de que o Irão tem o direito de levar a cabo o enriquecimento limitado de urânio de baixo grau no âmbito do Tratado de Não Proliferação (TNP). O Ocidente libertou cerca de sete mil milhões de dólares de fundos iranianos congelados e atenuou algumas sanções (em particular, do petróleo bruto e autopeças), enquanto o Irão concordou com um quase congelamento do seu programa nuclear. Isso criou a base para um acordo duradouro. Mas realizar esse potencial vai ser difícil.

Em primeiro lugar, uma montanha de desconfiança mútua terá de ser superada. O Ocidente e Israel não acreditam que o programa nuclear do Irão tenha como propósito servir objectivos meramente civis. Se assim não fosse, por que é que o Irão investiria milhares de milhões de dólares num programa que é quase feito à medida para fins militares, incluindo sistemas de distribuição de longa distância?

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