Désamorcer l’Iran

BERLIN – Le 18 février, des négociations décisives sur le programme nucléaire iranien ont commencé à Vienne entre l’Iran et les cinq membres permanents du Conseil de sécurité, plus l’Allemagne (les P5+1). L’alternative à ces discussions serait un nouveau renforcement par l’Iran de son programme nucléaire, suivi de nouvelles sanctions internationales et en fin de compte une nouvelle guerre au Moyen-Orient qui, de l’avis général, ne résoudrait rien. La question se pose donc de savoir s’il est possible de conclure un accord détaillé qui respecte le droit de l’Iran à se doter du nucléaire civil, tout en apaisant les préoccupations de la communauté internationale concernant les risques d’une course aux armements.

L’accord intérimaire conclu en novembre dernier à Genève reflète l’acceptation de fait par l’Occident du droit de l’Iran à enrichir faiblement l’uranium comme l’y autorise le Traité sur la non-prolifération des armes nucléaires (TNP). Les pays occidentaux ont débloqué pour près de 7 milliards de dollars d’avoirs iraniens gelés et levé certaines sanctions (en particulier concernant le pétrole brut et les pièces automobiles), tandis que de son côté, l’Iran a accepté de suspendre ses activités nucléaires les plus sensibles. Ces concessions bilatérales constituent la base d’un accord durable. Mais concrétiser le potentiel de cet accord ne sera pas une tâche aisée.

Tout d’abord, un gouffre de méfiance mutuelle devra être surmonté. Les pays occidentaux, comme Israël, ne pensent pas que le programme nucléaire iranien ait des objectifs uniquement pacifiques. Si c’était le cas, pourquoi l’Iran investirait-il des milliards de dollars dans un programme pour ainsi dire taillé sur mesure pour un usage militaire, y compris le développement de missiles longue portée ?

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