Ucrania: un error garrafal de Europa

BERLÍN – Debe de ser la primera vez que a la Unión Europea le pasa algo así: el gobierno del presidente de Ucrania, Víktor Yanukóvich, fingió negociar un acuerdo de asociación y después se echó atrás a último minuto. Los líderes de la Unión Europea se sintieron engañados, pero en Moscú hubo ánimo de fiesta.

Ahora sabemos que para Yanukóvich, el verdadero motivo de la negociación era subirle a Rusia el precio de mantener a Ucrania en su órbita estratégica. Pocos días después, Yanukóvich y el presidente ruso Vladímir Putin anunciaron la concesión de un préstamo de Rusia a Ucrania por 15.000 millones de dólares, además de una rebaja del precio del gas natural y diversos acuerdos comerciales.

Desde el punto de vista de Yanukóvich, el acuerdo con Rusia tiene sentido en el corto plazo: el gas barato ayudará a Ucrania a pasar el invierno; el préstamo le servirá para no caer en cesación de pagos de su deuda; y se mantiene abierto el mercado ruso (del que depende su economía). Pero a mediano plazo, al rechazar a la Unión Europea y elegir a Rusia, Ucrania corre riesgo de perder su independencia, de la cual depende el orden post‑soviético de Europa.

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