O Erro Ucraniano da Europa

BERLIM – A União Europeia provavelmente nunca antes passou por algo assim: o governo do Presidente Ucraniano Viktor Yanukovych fingiu negociar um acordo de associação, apenas para voltar atrás no último minuto. Os líderes da UE sentiram-se enganados; em Moscovo, contudo, o ambiente era de celebração.

Como sabemos agora, a verdadeira motivação de Yanukovych para as negociações consistia em aumentar o preço a pagar pela Rússia para manter a Ucrânia na sua órbita estratégica. Poucos dias mais tarde, Yanukovych e o Presidente Russo Vladimir Putin anunciaram um empréstimo Russo no valor de 15 mil milhões de dólares, um corte nos preços do gás natural, e vários acordos comerciais.

Do ponto de vista de Yanukovych, este acordo fazia sentido no curto prazo: a transacção do gás ajudaria a Ucrânia a sobreviver ao inverno, o empréstimo evitaria que a sua dívida entrasse em incumprimento, e o mercado Russo, do qual depende a economia, permaneceria aberto. No médio prazo, porém, ao rejeitar a UE e ao voltar-se para Rússia, a Ucrânia enfrenta o risco de perder a sua independência – da qual depende a ordem pós-Soviética na Europa.

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