A Longa Sombra da Grande Guerra

BERLIM – Este ano marca o centenário da deflagração da I Grande Guerra, e isso é razão suficiente para reflectirmos sobre o que esta catástrofe Europeia seminal nos ensina hoje. Na verdade, as consequências da Grande Guerra nas relações internacionais e no sistema global de estados continuam a ser sentidas. Então, aprendemos algo com os falhanços políticos de governos, instituições, e da diplomacia internacional que aconteceram no Verão de 1914?

Grandes partes do hemisfério norte continuam a debater-se com os legados dos grandes impérios Europeus – Habsburgo, Russo, e Otomano – que colapsaram no rescaldo da I GG, ou cujo declínio, como o do Império Britânico, se iniciou com a guerra e foi selado pela sua sequela, ainda mais sangrenta, da geração seguinte. As zonas de fractura resultantes – nos Balcãs e no Médio Oriente, por exemplo – são fonte de alguns dos mais graves riscos actuais para a paz regional e mesmo mundial.

Depois do fim da Guerra Fria, e do colapso do sucessor Soviético do Império Russo, a guerra regressou aos Balcãs em condições muito parecidas às que prevaleciam no período pré-1914, com o nacionalismo agressivo a reconfigurar, em última análise, a Jugoslávia que se desintegrava em seis estados separados. Claro, o Presidente Sérvio Slobodan Milošević, cujo apelo a uma “Grande Sérvia” despoletou a guerra, não estava só: durante um momento, a Europa esteve em perigo de voltar à confrontação de 1914, com a França e o Reino Unido a apoiar a Sérvia, e a Alemanha e a Áustria a favorecer a Croácia.

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