大战的长期阴影

柏林—今年是第一次世界大战爆发一百周年,光是这一理由便已足以让我们反思这场欧洲的灾难对今天的意义。事实上,一战对国际关系和全球国家体系所造成的后果至今仍能感受到。那么,我们从1914夏天所发生的政府、制度和国际外交方面的政策失误中学到了什么?

北半球的大部分地区仍在欧洲大帝国——哈布斯堡、沙俄和奥斯曼——因为一战而崩溃所造成的后果中挣扎,更有一些帝国——如大英帝国——因为一战而衰落,并且因为二十多年后的另一场更加血腥的战争而板上钉钉。由此所造成的分裂区——如巴尔干半岛和中东——成为当今地区乃至世界和平的最大风险源。

冷战结束以及沙俄帝国的后继者苏联解体后,战争回到了巴尔干半岛,因为那里的情况变得与1914年前极为相似,最后,激进的民族主义把南斯拉夫打散重组为六个独立国家。当然,以提出“大塞尔维亚”而引发战争的塞尔维亚总统米洛舍维奇(Slobodan Milošević)并不孤独:有一段时间,欧洲大有重回1914年冲突之势,法国和英国支持塞尔维亚,德国和奥地利站在克罗地亚一边。

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