Le rôle de l’Europe dans la tragédie ukrainienne

BERLIN – La Grande politique et l’expérience quotidienne ont souvent beaucoup en commun. Essayez par exemple d’avaler un salami tout entier, et vous risquez fort de vous étouffer. Il en va de même chez les protagonistes de la haute politique, qui n’ont d’autre choix que de trancher leur salami avant de le consommer. En d’autres termes, lorsqu’ils ne sont pas en mesure d’atteindre immédiatement un objectif donné, ils procèdent avec patience, étape par étape.

C’est bien cette « stratégie du salami » que privilégie aujourd’hui le Kremlin vis-à-vis de l’Ukraine. Se joue actuellement sous nos yeux une tragédie en plusieurs actes, dont les acteurs – et leurs objectifs respectifs – apparaissent clairement. La seule inconnue réside dans le nombre d’actes qui s’ajouteront encore à ce triste spectacle politique, autrement dit dans le moment et la nature du dénouement.

Le premier acte a débuté à l’automne 2013, lorsque le président de l’époque Viktor Ianoukovitch a dupé l’Union européenne et ses dirigeants en refusant de signer un accord d’association pourtant élaboré de longue date. Ianoukovitch a préféré intégrer l’Ukraine à une union douanière auprès de la Russie, en échange d’un montant considérable ainsi que d’un approvisionnement bon marché en pétrole et en gaz naturel. Le président russe Vladimir Poutine semblait ainsi avoir atteint son objectif politique, à savoir replacer l’Ukraine – qui s’était peu à peu rapprochée de l’Europe au cours de la période post-soviétique – sous la sphère d’influence du Kremlin.

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