Oriente Medio en el invierno árabe

BERLÍN – Los viajes abren la mente, dice el viejo dicho. Esto es especialmente válido en el caso de Oriente Medio. Pero viajar allí hoy en día puede resultar extremadamente desconcertante; de hecho, se han producido acontecimientos imposibles de imaginar hace apenas unos meses y que hoy se vuelven una realidad.

La revuelta juvenil que comenzó en Túnez y El Cairo en 2010-2011 ha terminado (al menos por el momento), aunque, gracias a ella, la región ha cambiado radicalmente. La victoria de la contrarrevolución y la política del poder, como en Egipto, sólo pareció restaurar el antiguo orden; los cimientos políticos del régimen actual son, lisa y llanamente, demasiado frágiles.

Igualmente destacable ha sido el giro permanente del eje estratégico-político de la región. Irán, con sus ambiciones nucleares y hegemónicas, es el centro actual, mientras que el antiguo centro -el conflicto palestino-israelí- ha quedado marginado, dando lugar a alianzas de intereses completamente nuevas. Arabia Saudita e Israel (que no tienen relaciones diplomáticas formales) están unidos contra Irán -y contra la posibilidad de un tregua entre Estados Unidos e Irán.

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