Арабская зима на Ближнем Востоке

БЕРЛИН – С давних времен говорят, что путешествия расширяют кругозор. Это особенно верно для Ближнего Востока. Но сегодня путешествие в эти края может привести к полной дезориентации; действительно, события, которые еще несколько месяцев назад были немыслимы, на глазах воплощаются там в жизнь.

Бунт молодежи, начавшийся в Тунисе и Каире в 2010-2011 годах, окончился (по крайней мере на данный момент), хотя регион фундаментально изменился благодаря ему. Победа контрреволюции и провластных политиков, как произошло в Египте, стала лишь видимостью реставрации старых порядков; политические основы нынешнего режима попросту слишком хрупки.

Столь же заметно стало долгосрочное смещение политико-стратегической оси региона. Ныне в центре внимания оказался Иран, с его ядерно-гегемонистскими амбициями, в то время как прежний центр – израильско-палестинский конфликт – оттеснен на периферию событий, что положило начало совершенно новым союзам по интересам. Саудовская Аравия и Израиль (между которыми даже нет официальных дипломатических отношений) объединились против Ирана – и против возможности разрядки напряженности в американо-иранских отношениях.

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