阿拉伯冬天里中东

柏林——古语说:旅行可以开阔思路。这句话尤其适用于中东。但今时今日去那里旅行让人异常迷惑;事实上,短短几个月前还无法想象的事态目前正在发生。

2010-2011年始于突尼斯和开罗的青年起义已经结束(至少目前暂时结束),但这次起义已经彻底改变了中东地区的格局。埃及反革命及强权政治获胜似乎不过是恢复了旧有的秩序;现政权的政治基础实在过于薄弱。

该地区政治战略轴心的永久性改变同样引人注目。拥有核野心及霸权抱负的伊朗成为当前的核心,而以巴冲突代表的原有核心已经边缘化,缔造出全新的利益联盟。(并未建立正式外交关系的)沙特和以色列共同反对伊朗——反对美伊关系出现缓和的可能性。

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