La segunda revolución mexicana

CIUDAD DE MÉXICO – Tras varios años de estancamiento y violencia, en 2013 México comenzó por fin a superar sus problemas, gracias a un presidente activista y a una coalición de partidos políticos decididos a lograr el avance del país. Pero al lado de cambios sustanciales, también subsiste un grado importante de incertidumbre y exageración. Y difícilmente podría ser de otro modo.

La situación se parece a la de 20 años atrás por estas mismas fechas. Cuando el 1 de enero de 1994 entró en vigor el Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (NAFTA), suscrito por México, Canadá y Estados Unidos, parecía que estaban dadas las condiciones para el despegue mexicano. Pero ese año se produjo una serie de eventos (el alzamiento zapatista en Chiapas, los asesinatos de un candidato presidencial y del principal colaborador del presidente entrante y el derrumbe de la moneda) que sacudieron a México y resaltaron la magnitud de los desafíos a los que se enfrentaba.

El NAFTA trajo consigo un aumento espectacular de las exportaciones mexicanas y un enorme cambio en su composición. Pero resultó muy decepcionante en cuanto al ingreso de inversiones extranjeras y al crecimiento económico, que a lo largo de las dos últimas décadas promedió un 2,6%, cifra menor a las de Perú, Chile, Colombia, Brasil y Uruguay. Esto llevó a que la diferencia de ingresos entre México y sus socios, Estados Unidos y Canadá, apenas se redujera.

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