La deuxième révolution mexicaine

MEXICO – Le Mexique, un pays en stagnation, infesté par la violence ces dernières années, est finalement parvenu à surmonter son malaise en 2013, grâce à un président activiste et à une coalition de partis politiques déterminés à porter le pays vers l’avant. Mais aux côtés de changements substantiels persistent une considérable incertitude et des hyperboles. Et cela ne pouvait être autrement.

La situation rappelle celle d’il y a vingt ans – presque jour pour jour. Lorsque l’Accord de libre échange nord-américain entre le Mexique, le Canada et les Etats-Unis est entré en application le 1er janvier 1994, le Mexique semblait prêt à un réel décollage. Mais une série d’évènements – le soulèvement zapatiste dans le Chiapas, les assassinats d’un candidat à la présidence et du principal conseiller du futur président, ainsi que l’effondrement de la monnaie – ont ébranlé le pays cette année-là, soulignant l’ampleur des défis à surmonter.

Cet accord de libre échange entraina une augmentation spectaculaire des exportations mexicaines et un changement radical dans leur composition. Mais il fut aussi une grande déception en matière d’investissements étrangers et de croissance économique, qui est de 2,6% par an en moyenne depuis vingt ans – inférieure à celle du Pérou, du Chili, de la Colombie, du Brésil et de l’Uruguay. L’écart de revenu entre le Mexique et le Canada et les Etats-Unis ne s’est donc réduit que très modestement.

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