Jorge G. Castañeda, Brazilian protesters go to streets in Latin-America, to prevent the World Cup, due to slow economic growth in Brazil Joseph Hurtado/Flickr

世界杯蓝调

墨西哥城—拉丁美洲的传统智慧是经济增长、代议制民主和中产阶级扩张的合力将该地区带入了一个陷阱,产生了公民期望增长速度快于政府满足期望的能力的矛盾。不满的中产阶级与传统部门合而为一,掀起示威和动乱,用选票将不作为的政府赶下台。但很少有人预计这一不满浪潮会威胁到拉丁美洲最有能力的总统、哥伦比亚的桑托斯(Juan Manuel Santos)以及拉丁美洲最伟大的传统之一巴西足球。

桑托斯大胆而有效地治理哥伦比亚已经四年。他不但与美国签订了自由贸易协定、纠正了前任政府侵犯人权的行为;还顶住了去年的学生、教师、农民和商人大示威,大刀阔斧地进行了重要的改革。尽管哥伦比亚经济的增长速度仍赶不上该国的需要,但比拉丁美洲其他许多国家表现要好。

最重要的是,桑托斯与哥伦比亚歌名武装力量(FARC)进行了和平和解除武装谈判,巩固了他的政治资本。FARC是实力强盛的哥伦比亚游击队组织,常常被称为“缉毒游击队”运动,在哥伦比亚作乱已有四十年。尽管从三年前的古巴谈判以来已经有了一些进展,但谈判一直进行的十分缓慢,让桑托斯的前任乌里韦(Álvaro Uribe)等反对者有充足的时间动员公众反对谈判。

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