Jordania: Incendio en la vecindad

Los jordanos pasan noches de insomnio a medida que avanza el sitio de Bagdad. Las imágenes que nos llegan desde el país vecino son horrendas, y los ciudadanos se han lanzado a las calles para protestar. Sin embargo, además de contemplar el colapso del régimen de Saddam, los jordanos están dándose cuenta de cuán estrechos son los lazos de nuestra sociedad con la de Irak, y cuán difícil será para Jordania emprender un nuevo rumbo si los estadounidenses acaban con el gobierno de Saddam Hussein.

En el nivel económico, los lazos de Jordania con Irak son muy fuertes. Casi todo nuestro petróleo proviene de Irak, a precios altamente subsidiados. Reemplazar este petróleo a precios del mercado nos costará más de $600 millones al año.

Mohammad al-Samadi, ex Ministro de Comercio e Industria, estima que los iraquíes compran más de $500 millones de bienes jordanos al año. Nuestra industria del transporte terrestre (5000 camiones, la mayoría de propiedad familiar) depende en gran medida de este intercambio comercial. Cuánto de ello se perderá, particularmente si un nuevo régimen en Bagdad castiga a Jordania por sus estrechos lazos con el gobierno iraquí, es una pregunta preocupante. Fahed al-Fanek, un destacado economista jordano, estima que la guerra podría costar a Jordania hasta el 25% de su PGB, cerca de $2 mil millones.

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