Jordanien: Der Brandherd nebenan

Die fortschreitende Belagerung Bagdads bereitet den Jordaniern schlaflose Nächte. Die schrecklichen Bilder aus unserem Nachbarland haben die Menschen in Jordanien zu Protestkundgebungen auf die Straßen getrieben. Während man sich mit dem Zusammenbruch von Saddams Regime auseinanderzusetzen beginnt, wird den Jordaniern auch bewusst, wie eng ihre eigene Gesellschaft mit der des Irak verbunden ist und wie schwer es für Jordanien sein wird, einen neuen Kurs einzuschlagen, wenn die Amerikaner der Herrschaft Saddam Husseins ein Ende setzen.

Auf wirtschaftlicher Ebene sind Jordanien und der Irak eng verbunden. Wir beziehen beinahe unser gesamtes Öl zu subventionierten Preisen aus dem Irak. Müssten wir den regulären Marktpreis bezahlen, würde dies jährlich 600 Millionen Dollar mehr verschlingen.

Laut einer Schätzung des ehemaligen jordanischen Handels- und Industrieministers Mohammad al-Samadi kaufen die Iraker jährlich jordanische Waren im Wert von mehr als 500 Millionen Dollar. Unser Transportwesen - 5000 meist in Familienbesitz befindliche Speditionen - ist größtenteils von diesem Handel abhängig. Wie viel davon noch übrig bleibt, wenn ein neues Regime in Bagdad Jordanien für seine engen Bindungen mit der irakischen Führung büßen lassen will, ist eine beunruhigende Frage. Fahed al-Fanek, ein führender jordanischer Ökonom, schätzt, dass der Krieg Jordanien rund 2 Milliarden Dollar kosten könnte, was 25 % seines BIP entspricht.

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