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Politics

يمكن لبايدن اجتياز اختبار الصين

Jan 21, 2021 Javier Solana and Eugenio Bregolat

مدريد - عندما يحين الوقت لتقييم الإرث الدولي للرئيس الأمريكي جو بايدن، ستكون إحدى المتغيرات مهمة للغاية: العلاقات التي تُقيمها إدارته مع الصين. لقد أصبحت المنافسة الصينية الأمريكية القضية الجيوستراتيجية العالمية الرئيسية، لكن شروطها بعيدة كل البعد عن أن تكون مُحددة بشكل نهائي. على الرغم من التنافس الواضح بينهما، يتعين على الولايات المتحدة والصين محاولة فهم بعضهما البعض، ومن المؤكد أن بايدن سيتصرف بمهارة ومسؤولية وانفتاح أكثر من سلفه. سيعتمد السلام والازدهار العالميين في القرن الحادي والعشرين إلى حد كبير على نوعية العلاقات الثنائية الأكثر أهمية في العالم.

يُعد التعاون بين الولايات المتحدة والصين أمرا ضروريا لحل التحديات العالمية الكبرى، بدءًا من الخطر الكامن المُتمثل في حدوث محرقة نووية إلى تغير المناخ، والإرهاب الدولي، وانتشار أسلحة الدمار الشامل، والأوبئة. وفي الوقت نفسه، لا يمكن تجنب المنافسة – بل هي مُرحب بها - في التجارة والتكنولوجيا والفضاء والرياضة والعديد من المجالات الأخرى.

في سبيل نجاح هذه العلاقة المُعقدة، يجب أن تتفق كلتا القوتين على مجموعة مشتركة من القواعد، بدلاً من محاولة فرض قواعدهما الخاصة بشكل مُنفرد. يُعد تحديد القنوات المُتعددة الأطراف لإنعاش منظمة التجارة العالمية ومنظمة الصحة العالمية أمرًا مُلحًّا بشكل خاص. تتمثل أولوية أخرى في وضع معايير للفضاء الإلكتروني للحد من عمليات القرصنة الإلكترونية الضخمة مثل اختراق برنامج شركة "سولار ويندز" الذي تم اكتشافه مؤخرًا في الولايات المتحدة، والذي يبدو أنه عمل مُرتبط بروسيا.

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Javier Solana

Writing for PS since 2004
149 Commentaries

Javier Solana, a former EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, secretary-general of NATO, and foreign minister of Spain, is President of EsadeGeo – Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics and Distinguished Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Eugenio Bregolat

Writing for PS since 2021
2 Commentaries

Eugenio Bregolat, a former Spanish ambassador to China, is an EsadeGeo senior fellow and the author of The Second Chinese Revolution (Palgrave Macmillan, 2014).

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j. von Hettlingen Jan 24, 2021

Javier Solana and Eugenio Bregolat say the US-China relationship is “too big to fail.” Although the US and China will likely remain at odds on many issues, the Biden administration must also recognise those areas where cooperation is in America’s best interest. Any “continued deterioration would bring unacceptable risks for them and the entire world, both countries should seize the opportunity to put relations on a new footing.”
According to the authors, the Sino-American cooperation is “indispensable” in tackling global threats and major challenges, “from the latent risk of a nuclear holocaust to climate change, international terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and pandemics.” All the while, “competition is unavoidable” – and may even be welcome – “in trade, technology, space, sports, and many other fields.”
Although the US-China competition has become “the main global geostrategic issue, but its terms are far from being irrevocably defined. Despite their obvious rivalry,” there is still room for the two countries to cooperate, “and Biden will certainly act with greater skill, responsibility, and broad-mindedness than his predecessor. This is just as well, because global peace and prosperity in the twenty-first century will depend on the quality of the world’s most important bilateral relationship.”
In order to make this complex relationship work, “both powers must agree on a common set of rules, instead of trying to impose their own unilaterally. Identifying multilateral channels that could revive the World Trade Organization and the World Health Organization is particularly urgent. Another priority is to establish cyberspace norms that would prevent massive electronic-piracy operations like the recently discovered SolarWinds hack in the US, which appears to be the work of Russia.”
The authors urge for a “framework for peaceful coexistence that….will require maintaining a fine balance between principles and realities.” It is important to ensure that China be a responsible partner without isolating the country or perpetuating the threat it poses. “To be sure, combining competition with cooperation will not always be easy,” but under Biden, the US “is perfectly capable of passing this critical, era-defining test.”
No doubt this is easier said than done, given that the US-China relations are at their lowest point in decades. An alternative that looks less bleak is a win-win solution. It has to be a “relationship built on cooperation and competition” which must exclude an “open confrontation” that Trump and his hawks sought. Critics said their “tariff and technology war” with China was counterproductive, “that the Chinese government inevitably fought blow for blow.”
According to the authors, “US foreign-policy and security experts worried that treating China as if it were an enemy destroys strategic trust and paves the way to its becoming one. As Jake Sullivan (Biden’s national security adviser) and Kurt M. Campbell (the designated White House coordinator for the Indo-Pacific region) warn, this vicious circle might very well end in catastrophe.” There is fear of a “Thucydides Trap” - an irresistible rising China on course to collide with an immovable America.
Despite growing tensions, China and the US must find a way to cooperate because their economies are too intertwined to decouple. However the US must continue promoting democracy and human rights and leading “by the power of our example.” If it is “carried out in a calm, consistent, and sensible manner,” it will not be seen as “trying to impose values or enforce conduct through ‘regime change,’ as some senior Trump administration officials seemed to favor with respect to China.”
The authors say the US has to repair the damage at home inflicted by Trump and restoring “the values of civil coexistence,” in order to regain the “soft power” that has historically been one of the main pillars of its global strength. Biden is “aware that it is counterproductive to force other countries to choose sides between the US and China, as Trump occasionally tried to do. Most countries today depend on both superpowers either economically or in security terms, so they prefer to steer clear of disputes and explore compatibilities.”
Many Asians hope that the US retains its presence in the region. Despite the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership - the world’s largest free-trade agreement in terms of population and GDP, and the first ever to include China, Japan, and South Korea - last November, countries across Asia do not trust China. This allows the US to wield some influence over the region.
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Sing Koo Jan 21, 2021

Soft power is applicable to friendly nations and allies. Communist China has been taking advantage of the courtesy offered by the free world. It is time to continue tighten the screw on CCP so that the world may dispose this devil once and for all. There is no room for America to do business with China when CCP's intension is to dominate the world with its ideology. America and its alliance should work towards ending China's membership at UN and WTO.
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Robert Wolff Jan 21, 2021

I seriously question why China would want to cooperate with the US Government. Wall Street Multinationals and their owners do not even cooperate with the US Government, rather they control it.

The US Multinational Owners who control the US Government are the only institutions with which China must cooperate, and the Multinationals and the PRC are a mutual admiration society for their mutual benefits (American Owners of Multinationals get richer and the PRC becomes wealthier and more powerful).

Far more important than cooperation between the CCP and the US Government is whether the US Owner Class is willing to give up their love relationship with the CCP in order to reverse the negative effects of Globalism on American Workers and serve their own country instead of China.
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