Paul Lachine

Empleos y estructura en la economía global

NUEVA YORK – La economía global está en una encrucijada a medida que los mercados emergentes (y de modo más amplio los países en desarrollo) cobran cada vez más importancia, tanto para la estabilidad macroeconómica y financiera como por su impacto sobre otras economías, incluidos los países avanzados.

Consideremos por ejemplo lo que ha sucedido en los últimos 20 años en los Estados Unidos. En algunas partes del sector comercializable (las finanzas, los seguros y el diseño de sistemas de cómputo) el valor agregado y el empleo crecieron, mientras que en otras (la electrónica y los automóviles) creció el valor agregado pero el empleo disminuyó a medida que los puestos de menor valor agregado salieron al extranjero. El efecto neto fue un aumento insignificante del crecimiento en el sector comercializable.

La economía estadounidense no tenía un problema notorio de desempleo hasta la crisis de 2008 porque el sector no comercializable absorbía la mayor parte de la expansión de la fuerza laboral. Ahora ese ritmo de crecimiento del empleo parece insostenible. El gobierno y la atención a la salud por sí solos representaron casi el 40% del aumento neto del empleo en toda la economía desde 1990 hasta 2008. La debilidad fiscal, el reajuste del valor de los bienes inmobiliarios y la disminución del consumo indican que existe la probabilidad de un desempleo estructural de largo plazo.

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