Paul Lachine

Posti di lavoro e struttura nell’economia globale

NEW YORK – L’economia globale si trova ad un bivio mentre i principali mercati emergenti (e, in termini più ampi, i paesi in via di sviluppo) acquistano importanza sia in termini di stabilità macroeconomica e finanziaria, sia per l’impatto sulle altre economie, tra cui quelle avanzate.

Consideriamo, ad esempio, quello che è successo negli Stati Uniti negli ultimi 20 anni. Alcune aree del settore tradable (la finanza, le assicurazioni e la progettazione dei sistemi informatici) hanno aumentato il loro valore aggiunto creando nuovi posti di lavoro, mentre altri settori (l’elettronica ed il settore automobilistico) sono solo cresciuti in termini di valore aggiunto subendo invece una riduzione dell’occupazione a causa dello spostamento dei lavori con valore aggiunto al di fuori dei confini. Ne è risultata una trascurabile crescita occupazionale nel settore tradable.

Fino alla crisi del 2008 l’economia statunitense non ha mai dovuto affrontare un livello così problematico di disoccupazione in quanto il settore non-tradable era in grado di assorbire la forza lavoro in espansione. Il passo di crescita occupazionale allora registrato sembra oggi insostenibile. Nel periodo compreso tra il 1998 ed il 2008, il governo e la sanità rappresentavano di per sé il 40% dell’incremento occupazionale netto rispetto a tutti i settori dell’economia. La debolezza fiscale, la reimpostazione del valore del settore immobiliare ed un livello ridotto di consumi sono elementi che necessariamente implicano un contesto di potenziale disoccupazione strutturale a lungo termine.

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