Paul Lachine

Arbeitsplätze und Struktur in der Weltwirtschaft

NEW YORK: Die Weltwirtschaft steht an einem Scheideweg, da die wichtigsten Schwellenmärkte (und die Entwicklungsländer allgemein) zunehmend an systemischer Bedeutung gewinnen – sowohl was die gesamtwirtschaftliche und finanzielle Stabilität angeht als auch in ihrem Einfluss auf andere Volkswirtschaften, einschließlich jener der hochentwickelten Länder.

Man betrachte etwa, was sich in den letzten 20 Jahren in den Vereinigten Staaten ereignet hat. In Teilen des Sektors für handelbare Güter (Finanzen, Versicherungen und Computersystemdesign) sind Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung gewachsen; in anderen jedoch (Elektronik und Autos) ist die Wertschöpfung gestiegen, die Beschäftigung aber ist gefallen, da Arbeitsplätze mit niedrigerer Wertschöpfung ins Ausland verlagert wurden. Der Nettoeffekt war ein zu vernachlässigendes Beschäftigungswachstum im Sektor für handelbare Güter.

Dass die US-Volkswirtschaft bis zur Krise 2008 trotzdem kein offensichtliches Arbeitslosenproblem hatte, liegt daran, dass der Sektor für nicht handelbare Güter den Großteil der wachsenden Erwerbsbevölkerung absorbierte. Heute erscheint das Tempo dieses Beschäftigungsanstiegs unhaltbar: Zwischen 1990 und 2008 entfielen fast 40% der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Nettobeschäftigungszunahme allein auf Regierung und Gesundheitswesen. Sinkende Steuereinnahmen und der Rückgang von Immobilienbewertungen und Konsum deuten alle auf die Möglichkeit einer langfristigen strukturellen Arbeitslosigkeit hin.

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