Paul Lachine

Les marchés contre l'emploi ?

NEW-YORK – L'économie mondiale se trouve à la croisée des chemins, car les principaux pays émergents (et plus largement les pays en développement) prennent de plus en plus d'importance systémique, tant du point de vue de la stabilité macroéconomique et financière que de leur impact économique sur les autres pays, y compris les pays avancés.

Examinons par exemple ce qui s'est passé aux USA au cours des 20 dernières années. Divers secteurs présents sur les marchés extérieurs ont vu croître leur valeur ajoutée, mais certains (la finance, les assurances, la conception de systèmes informatiques) ont créé des emplois, tandis que d'autres (l'électronique et l'automobile) en ont supprimé, car ils ont délocalisés les éléments de leur chaîne de production à faible valeur ajoutée. Au total la création d'emplois a été faible.

L'économie américaine ne connaissait pas de véritable problème de chômage avant la crise de 2008 car les secteurs non exportateurs absorbaient la plus grande partie des nouveaux arrivants sur le marché du travail. Ce taux de création d'emploi n'est plus tenable aujourd'hui. La fonction publique et la santé représentaient à eux seuls prés de 40% des créations d'emplois nets dans toute l'économie entre 1990 et 2008. Les difficultés budgétaires, les fluctuations de prix dans l'immobilier et la baisse de la consommation sont annonciatrices d'un chômage structurel de longue durée.

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