Recuperaciones sin empleo y políticas maniacas

CHICAGO – La política fiscal y monetaria de los Estados Unidos, tanto en la actual recesión como en la de 2001, ha sido de las más flexibles en el mundo industrial. En estos momentos el Congreso está trabajando de nuevo en otra ley de “empleos.” En efecto, John Taylor, de la Universidad de Stanford atribuye la reciente crisis financiera a políticas monetarias de estímulo excesivas durante la parte final del mandato de Alan Greenspan como presidente de la Reserva Federal estadounidense.

¿Por qué es tan flexible la política estadounidense? Una de las razones principales es que la naturaleza de las recuperaciones económicas de dicho país ha cambiado. De 1960 hasta 1991, las recuperaciones de los Estados Unidos fueron típicamente rápidas. Entre la parte más profunda de la recesión hasta la recuperación a los niveles de producción previos a ésta, pasaban dos trimestres en promedio, y el empleo se recuperaba en ocho meses.

Sin embargo, las recuperaciones de las recesiones de 1991 y 2001 fueron diferentes. Por ejemplo, en 2001 la producción se recuperó solamente en un trimestre, pero los empleos tardaron treinta y ocho meses para regresar. La recuperación actual parece ir igualmente lenta en la creación de empleos.

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