La reprise sans emplois et les politiques obsessionnelles

CHICAGO – Les politiques monétaires et budgétaires aux Etats-Unis, à la fois au cours de cette récession comme de celle de 2001, ont été parmi les plus complaisantes du monde industriel. Au moment où je rédige cet article, le Congrès planche sur encore un autre projet de loi pour « l’emploi ». John Taylor de l’université de Stanford attribue en effet la récente crise financière à une politique monétaire excessivement stimulatrice vers la fin du mandat de directeur de la Réserve Fédérale américaine d’Alan Greenspan.

Pourquoi la politique américaine est-elle si complaisante ? Une des raisons principales à cela est le profond changement dans la nature des cycles américains de reprise économique. De 1960 jusqu’à 1991, ces cycles étaient habituellement rapides aux Etats-Unis. A partir du creux récessionnaire, la période entre la reprise et les niveaux de production pré-récession durait en moyenne moins de deux trimestres et le marché de l’emploi se reprenait en huit mois.

Mais les cycles de reprise économique après les récessions de 1991 et 2001 furent différents. En 2001, par exemple, il ne fallut que trois mois pour assister à la reprise des niveaux de production, mais 38 mois pour celle du marché du travail. La reprise actuelle semble être tout aussi lente à recréer de l’emploi.

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