Zotavení bez poklesu nezaměstnanosti a maniakální politika

CHICAGO – Monetární a fiskální politika ve Spojených státech patřila v této recesi i během recese v roce 2001 k nejvstřícnějším v celém průmyslovém světě. V době psaní tohoto článku pracuje americký Kongres na dalším návrhu zákona o pracovních místech. John Taylor ze Stanfordovy univerzity dokonce připisuje nedávnou finanční krizi přehnaně stimulativní monetární politice v závěru působení Alana Greenspena ve funkci šéfa amerického Federálního rezervního systému.

Proč je americká politika tak vstřícná? Stěžejním důvodem je skutečnost, že se změnila povaha amerických hospodářských zotavení. Od roku 1960 do roku 1991 byla zotavení v USA obvykle rychlá. Vzestup hospodářské výkonnosti ze dna recese až na úroveň před recesí trval v průměru necelá dvě čtvrtletí a zaměstnanost se zotavila do osmi měsíců.

Zotavení se z recesí v letech 1991 a 2001 však probíhalo odlišně. Například v roce 2001 trvala obnova hospodářské výkonnosti pouhé jedno čtvrtletí, avšak pracovní místa se zotavila až za 38 měsíců. Současné zotavení se co do tvorby pracovních míst jeví jako podobně pomalé.

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