失业性复苏和政策狂躁症

发自芝加哥——在2001年以及最近的这次衰退中,美国都实施了堪称工业时代以来最为宽松的货币和财政政策。就在本文落笔之时,国会还在制定另外一份“就业”法案。事实上,斯坦福大学经济学教授约翰·泰勒教授将最近这场经济危机归因于艾伦·格林斯潘作为美联储主席任期即将届满而推行的过度刺激性货币政策。

那美国的政策为何会如此宽松呢?这主要是因为美国经济的本质已经发生了转变。在1960年到1991年间美国的经济复苏速度都相当快,那时从衰退的最低点恢复到衰退前产出水平平均只要不到2个季度,而就业在八个月以内就恢复到原来水平了。

但1991年和2001年的复苏则截然不同。在2001年,产出水平只花了1个季度就恢复原状,但就业率却整整拖了38个月才回到原点,而当前的复苏在恢复就业方面似乎也同样缓慢无比。

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