Emmanuel Dunand/ Getty Images

De la guerra al trabajo

OXFORD – Es innegable que toda guerra tiene efectos negativos de largo alcance, también sobre el empleo. Pero el análisis predominante de la relación entre guerra y empleo no termina de reconocer la complejidad de dicha relación, y esta falencia dificulta la aplicación de políticas de empleo eficaces en los países frágiles.

La idea tradicional es que las guerras destruyen empleos; no solo eso: como el desempleo puede alentar más conflicto (ya que los jóvenes desempleados hallan validación y recompensas económicas en los movimientos violentos), la creación de empleo debe ser parte central de las políticas posconflicto. Pero aunque esta explicación parece razonable, estos supuestos no son del todo exactos, como explico en un artículo publicado en 2015.

El primer supuesto (que los conflictos violentos destruyen empleos) pasa por alto el hecho de que cada conflicto es único. Algunos, como la guerra civil de 2008 y 2009 en Sri Lanka, se concentran en un área relativamente pequeña y dejan a gran parte del país (y de la economía) inalterados.

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