Emmanuel Dunand/ Getty Images

От войны к труду

ОКСФОРД – Невозможно отрицать, что вооружённые конфликты имеют множество серьёзных негативных последствий, в том числе для занятости. Однако преобладающие сейчас представления о связи между этими конфликтами и занятостью не полностью отражают всю сложность данных отношений. Этот пробел затрудняет проведение эффективной политики в сфере занятости в ослабленных конфликтами государствах.

Согласно общепринятому мнению, вооружённые конфликты приводят к исчезновению рабочих мест. Кроме того, безработица может провоцировать новые конфликты, поскольку безработная молодёжь находит себе применение и экономическое вознаграждение в вооружённых движениях. По этим причинам создание рабочих мест должно быть центральным элементом политики, проводимой после конфликтов. Но хотя всё это звучит, конечно, логично, подобные взгляды, как я уже подробно писал в статье 2015 года, не обязательно являются абсолютно правильными.

В первом предположении (будто вооружённые конфликты уничтожают рабочие места) игнорируется тот факт, что каждый конфликт уникален. Некоторые конфликты, например гражданская война в Шри-Ланке в 2008-2009 годах, разворачиваются на сравнительно небольшой территории и не затрагивают основную часть страны, а значит, и экономики.

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