Emmanuel Dunand/ Getty Images

Vom Krieg zur Arbeit

OXFORD – Es besteht kein Zweifel daran, dass Konflikte weit reichende negative Folgen haben, auch auf die Beschäftigung. Aber die vorherrschenden Meinung der Beziehung zwischen Konflikt und Beschäftigung erkennt die Komplexität dieser Beziehung nicht in ihrer ganzen Tragweite - ein Versäumnis, das die Einführung einer effektiven Beschäftigungspolitik in instabilen Staaten immer wieder verhindert.

Die herkömmliche Weisheit ist, dass Konflikte Arbeitsplätze vernichten. Und damit nicht genug, Arbeitslosigkeit kann Konflikte verschärfen, wenn arbeitslose Jugendliche Anerkennung und wirtschaftliche Vorteile in gewaltsamen Bewegungen finden. Daher muss die Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen eines der ersten Anliegen von Politik nach einem Konflikt sein. Das klingt zwar logisch, ist aber nicht unbedingt immer tatsächlich zutreffend, wie ich in einem Aufsatz von 2015 dargelegt habe.

Die erste Annahme - gewaltsame Konflikte zerstören Arbeitsplätze - lässt unberücksichtigt, dass jeder Konflikt einzigartig ist. Einige, wie der Bürgerkrieg in Sri Lanka 2008-2009, konzentrieren sich auf ein relativ kleines Gebiet und lassen den Rest des Landes - und damit die Wirtschaft - unberührt.

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