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从战争到就业

牛津——不可否认冲突对包括就业形势在内的方方面面都能产生深远的负面影响。但对冲突和就业关系的普遍理解却并未充分体现其中的复杂性——这样的缺陷阻碍了脆弱国家制定有效的就业政策。

传统观点是冲突对就业起损害作用。不仅如此,失业年轻人在暴力活动中寻找自我价值和经济回报可能使失业引发进一步冲突,因此创造就业机会应当是后冲突期的核心政策。尽管这听上去完全合乎逻辑,但我在2015年一篇论文中提到这些假设并不一定是完全准确的。

第一种假设——即暴力冲突破坏就业——忽略了每一次冲突都各有特色。有些,比如2008到2009年的斯里兰卡内战集中在相对较小的区域,从而导致该国大部分地区(以及经济)并未受到影响。

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