Jeffrey Frankel, Emerging-Market, nominal GDP growth, inflation and monetary policy Mando Gomez/Flickr

Praxe cílování na rozvíjejících se trzích

ISTANBUL – Centrální bankéři chtějí jen několik věcí. Ve snaze jich dosáhnout se zpravidla snaží postrčit inflační očekávání, demonstrovat transparentnost měnové politiky a pro svou instituci získat věrohodnost. Aby dali jasně a zřetelně najevo své záměry, mohou stanovit explicitní rozpětí cíle ve smyslu konkrétní ekonomické proměnné, vyhlásit pro určitou proměnnou prognózu anebo předložit výhledové vodítko určením prahové hodnoty, jíž musí být dosaženo, než se změní úrokové sazby.

Jenže která ekonomická proměnná by to měla být? Přední vyspělé země v 80. letech zkoušely peněžní nabídku. Když monetaristický přístup selhal, některé přešly na cílování míry inflace. Opakovaně ale své cíle míjely.

Až do měnových krachů v 90. letech měly rozvíjející se a rozvojové země sklon cílovat své směnné kurzy. Mnohé pak přešly na inflační cíle; zhusta však tyto cíle míjejí ještě častěji než vyspělé země.

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