Jeffrey Frankel, Emerging-Market, nominal GDP growth, inflation and monetary policy Mando Gomez/Flickr

新兴市场目标制定实践

伊斯坦布尔—央行行长所求甚少。为了得偿所愿,他们常常试图引导通胀预期、表明货币政策的透明性、建立所在机构的信誉。为了简单明白地表明态度,他们或许会给某个经济变量制定明确的目标区间,或宣布对该变量的预测,或通过制定具体的利率调整门槛提供前瞻性指引。

但这个经济变量应该是什么?20世纪80年代,主要发达国家尝试了货币供给。在货币主义方法失败后,一些人转向目标通胀率。但他们总是没有办法达到目标。

直到20世纪90年代货币危机前,新兴和发展中国家一直都紧盯着汇率。其中许多国家随后也转向了通胀目标;但他们比发达国家更加频繁地无法达到目标。

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