Jeffrey Frankel, Emerging-Market, nominal GDP growth, inflation and monetary policy Mando Gomez/Flickr

الأسواق الناشئة وتمارين الرماية

اسطنبول ــ يبدو أن القائمين على البنوك المركزية لا تشغلهم سوى بضعة أمور قليلة. ولتنفيذ أي منها فإنهم يسعون عادة إلى رفع توقعات التضخم، وإظهار شفافية السياسة النقدية، والتأسيس لمصداقية مؤسساتهم. ولكي ينقلوا نواياهم ببساطة ووضوح، فربما يحددون نطاقاً مستهدفاً واضحاً في ما يتصل بمتغير اقتصادي بعينه، أو يعلنون عن توقعاتهم لهذا المتغير، أو يقدمون توجيهات مسبقة من خلال تحديد قيمة ما كعتبة له لابد من تلبيتها قبل تغيير أسعار الفائدة.

ولكن ما هو هذا المتغير الاقتصادي الخاص؟ في ثمانينيات القرن العشرين، جربت البلدان المتقدمة الكبرى المعروض من النقود. وبعد فشل النهج النقدي تحول البعض إلى استهداف معدل التضخم. ولكنهم ظلوا يخطئون أهدافهم على نحو متكرر.

وقبل انهيار العملات في التسعينيات، كانت البلدان الناشئة والنامية تميل إلى استهداف أسعار صرفها عملاتها. ثم تحولت بلدان كثيرة بعد ذلك إلى أهداف التضخم؛ ولكنها تميل إلى عدم إصابة أهدافها بشكل أكثر تكراراً حتى مقارنة بالبلدان المتقدمة.

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