White House Photo/Pete Souza

中国仍是第二名

纽约剑桥—本周,世界各大媒体纷纷抛出全球经济分化时刻论。《金融时报》说:“今年中国就将超过美国成为世界第一经济大国。”这是一个令人吃惊的趋势——如果这一论断不错得离谱的话。事实上,美国仍以相当大的优势稳坐世界第一大国家经济体宝座。

整个故事的起源是4月29日世界银行国际比较项目(International Comparison Program,ICP)发布的一份报告。ICP的工作很有价值。每隔六年,我都会翘首期待使用其新的估计结果,包括关于中国的结果。

ICP的数据使用购买力平价汇率(PPP)而非市场汇率比较各国GDP。如果要比较真实(经通胀调整的)人均收入以测量人民的生活水平,这样比较是正确的。但若要衡量国民收入以测量一国在全球经济中的分量,这样比较是错误的。

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