回到起点的主权债务

美国剑桥—阿根廷及其银行家被禁止偿还债务以履行与该国债权人达成的债务重组协议,除非拒绝该协议的7%债权人获得足额偿付——美国最高法院支持的情况看,这一判决可能无法推翻了。尽管我们大可不必为阿根廷哭泣,但这一有利于顽固坚持的判决对全球金融体系来说是一个坏消息,也让重组主权债务的国际机制发生了倒退。

为何同情无法偿付债务的发展中国家如此困难?首先,2001年,阿根廷单方面对其全部1,000亿美元债务违了约,而不是与债权人协商新条款,这是颇为反常的。2005年,阿根廷政府终于拨冗参与债务互换谈判时,它几乎可以任意指定条件——70%的“剃头”(haircut)。

在此间的十年中,阿根廷总统费尔南德兹·基什内尔及其已故丈夫兼前任总统捏斯托·基什内尔实施了一系列糟糕透顶的经济政策。中央银行和统计部门的独立性遭到了严重破坏,比如,费尔南德兹强迫采取了严重低估通胀率的消费物价指数。契约被恣意破坏,外资公司被国有化。而当主产农作物全球价格飙升为阿根廷提供了提振产出、增加长期不足的外汇收入时,费尔南德兹又给大豆、小麦和牛肉出口施加了沉重的关税。

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