jeffrey D. Sachs, Climate change Negotiations, global-warming, technological problem AND  CO2 emissions,  China and US not ready to sacrifice millions of jobs Stewart Innes/ZumaPress

Los límites de las negociaciones climáticas

NUEVA YORK – Si el mundo va a resolver la crisis del cambio climático, se necesita de un nuevo enfoque. En la actualidad, las principales potencias ven el cambio climático como una negociación sobre quién va a reducir sus emisiones de CO2 (que sobrevienen principalmente por el uso de carbón, petróleo y gas). Cada una de estas potencias está de acuerdo con realizar pequeñas “contribuciones” a la reducción de emisiones, y trata de empujar a los demás países a poner más de su parte. Estados Unidos, por ejemplo, “contribuirá” con un poco de reducciones de CO2 si China va a hacer lo mismo.

Durante dos décadas, nos hemos visto atrapados en esta mentalidad minimalista e incremental, que es errónea en dos aspectos clave. En primer lugar, este enfoque no está funcionando ya que las emisiones de CO2 están aumentando, no disminuyendo. La industria petrolera mundial está en una época de bonanza – fracking, perforaciones, exploraciones en el Ártico, gasificación del carbón y la construcción de nuevas instalaciones para el gas natural licuado (GNL). El mundo está destruyendo los sistemas climáticos y de abastecimiento de alimentos a un ritmo vertiginoso.

En segundo lugar, la “descarbonización” del sistema energético es tecnológicamente complicada. El verdadero problema de Estados Unidos no es la competencia que llega de China, es la complejidad que supone el desplazamiento de una economía de $17,5 millones de millones de dólares que usa combustibles fósiles para convertirla en una economía que usa alternativas bajas en carbono. El problema de China no es EE.UU., sino cómo hacer que la primera, o la segunda economía más grande del mundo (China es la primera o segunda según qué datos se utilicen para clasificarla) deje de lado su profundamente arraigada dependencia del carbón. Primordialmente, estos son problemas de ingeniería, no de negociación.

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