La encrucijada de la zona del euro

PARÍS – Al acercarnos a 2014, los mercados financieros están tranquilos y los políticos de Europa aliviados, pero los problemas fundamentales que han provocado la crisis del euro durante los cuatro últimos años persisten y ahora es el momento de abordarlos. Ésa es la tesis de dos importantes estudios recientes, uno del grupo bipartidista de economistas, juristas y especialistas en ciencia política alemanes llamado Glienicker Gruppe y el otro de Ashoka Mody, ex funcionario del Fondo Monetario Internacional, que ahora está en la Universidad de Princeton y el europeo centro de estudios Bruegel.

Sin embargo, aparte de la necesidad de actuar, los autores concuerdan en poco más. El grupo alemán sostiene que la supervivencia de la zona del euro requiere una unión política equipada con un presupuesto común. Mody dice que los planes federalistas de la Unión Europea llevan cinco decenios sin cumplirse y que la única forma de avanzar es la de abandonar las medidas encaminadas a perfeccionar las políticas nacionales establecidas en Bruselas y en su lugar perseguir una unión descentralizada.

Su premisa compartida es correcta: la complacencia respecto de la crisis del euro es desacertada, los remedios adoptados hasta ahora no son suficientes para garantizar una estabilidad duradera y se debe aprovechar el respiro actual para concebir la estructura permanente del bloque. Además, el advenimiento de un gobierno de coalición bipartidista en Alemania, junto con el nombramiento de una nueva Administración europea tras las elecciones al Parlamento Europeo que se celebrarán en mayo, ofrece una oportunidad para examinar nuevas ideas.

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